It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over by David Reel

We live in a VUCA world, a world characterized by increasingly high levels of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity.

In such a world, I suggest a guiding principle when making observations on campaigns and elections.

It is: In every election cycle, anything can happen with any candidate or any campaign at any time until the votes are cast, counted, and certified.

Baseball great Yogi Berra said it more succinctly when he said this about every game of baseball — “It ain’t over till it’s over.”

I think about that every time I read or hear political pundits and others opine with campaign and election predictions.

After a debate where President Biden performed very poorly, countless pundits have said or written it is just a matter of time until Biden voluntarily withdraws from a reelection race (currently not likely), is denied his party’s nomination (also currently not likely) or loses a grudge rematch with former President Trump (currently likely, but certainly not a given).

For a perspective on all this, I suggest a review of the 1968 Presidential election cycle.

The political environment then compared to today is strikingly familiar.

Then as now:

Voters were and are deeply divided along generational, income, racial and ideological lines.
Crime and lawless behavior were and are at epidemic levels in urban areas, suburban areas, and rural areas across America.
Protests were and are occurring on college campuses over American foreign policy decisions.
Inflation rates were and are up due to government spending on domestic and foreign policies.
Concerns were and are being raised daily on the incumbent President’s health and his ability to serve another full term.

Despite all the above conventional wisdom early in 1968 incumbent Democratic President Lyndon Johnson would run for reelection.

In March 1968, LBJ shocked the political world, ending a nationally televised address with: “I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your President.”

Following that speech, expectations were that Robert F. Kennedy, the U.S. Senator from New York and heir apparent of the Kennedy legacy in American politics, would secure the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination. His assassination immediately following his declaring victory in the California Democratic primary in June, put a tragic end to that scenario.

Ultimately, under the Democratic Party presidential nomination rules in place at the time (which are no longer in place), the leaders and power brokers in the Democratic Party convinced Democratic National Convention delegates to nominate Hubert Humphrey as their presidential candidate. Humphrey was Johnson’s loyal (some say subservient) vice president.

Conventional wisdom was Humphrey was the best candidate to keep the historic New Deal coalition in place that, since 1932, had elected Democratic presidential candidates Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, and Lyndon Johnson.

Conventional wisdom was also that Richard Nixon would not win the Republican nomination given the fact that Republican New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller and Republican California Governor Ronald Reagan were challenging him. Nixon had already lost to John F. Kennedy in a close presidential election in 1960 and lost in a race for California Governor in 1962.

Despite those two losses and despite being a very polarizing figure in American politics long before Watergate, Nixon won the Republican presidential nomination.

Following a chaotic Democratic Party convention in Chicago, expectations were that Humphrey would lose to Nixon based in part to an assumption that George Wallace’s aggressive third-party presidential bid would draw traditional Democratic party voters away from Humphrey.

Surveys from August through late October seemed to confirm that outcome. In all those polls, Humphrey trailed Nixon. Some pollsters predicted a margin of victory for Nixon as high as 16%.

In October, everything changed. George Wallace’s third-party campaign was faltering. LBJ n suspended bombing in the Vietnam War and announced the possibility of peace talks that could end the long and increasingly unpopular war. Humphrey decided to distance himself from LBJ by branding himself as Hubert Humphrey, not as Vice President Humphrey.

As a result, just before election day, pollsters concluded the race between Humphrey and Nixon was a tossup.

Those conclusions were validated when Nixon secured a close victory in the popular vote with just over 500,000 votes (0.7%) separating him and Humphrey.

Some have suggested that, had the election been held two weeks later, Humphrey could have won. What is known is that had Humphrey not narrowly lost the popular votes in California, Ohio, and Illinois, he would have won both the popular vote and the vote in the Electoral College.

Just as in the 1968 presidential election cycle, a lot can and will occur between now and November 2024.

I suggest supporters of President Biden, supporters of former President Trump and supporters of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. do this — Acknowledge and embrace the timeless wisdom of Yogi Berra – “It ain’t over till it’s over.”

David Reel is a public relations and public affairs consultant who lives in Easton.