How are your shoulders holding up? The world on the eve of Thanksgiving, 2020, is heavy. So too was the world of 1621; the world of the Pilgrims and the Wampanoag who were trying to cope with their intrusion. Be thankful if you have strong shoulders!

Weight is better when it can be shared. We gather when we lose a loved one to share grief, to recall stories of the good times and, if we are fortunate enough to believe there is a transcendent life, to share hope.

Thanksgiving, 2020 arrives with threats. Do you have loved ones who are old? They are more susceptible to Covid-19’s worst outcomes. Or, do you live in a family that is divided by politics? Or, how hard is the economy—my job—going to be hit in this second wave of the pandemic? And if I own the business, will it survive?

My guess is that thanks are often aligned with the present, with circumstances in our lives. When our lives are going well then we are thankful—so let’s get together and have a party. 

But I, like many of you, keep coming back to Thanksgivings past. I can recall driving my family of five through a snow storm on two lane roads to celebrate with my parents, 220 miles away. We had to pack carefully to leave room for the diaper pail (look it up).  My guess is our risk of trouble was much higher than today’s exposure to Covid-19. I don’t say this to minimize today’s risk, but to add an exclamation point to the essence of Thanksgiving, the need to gather together with family and friends. 

Our family always gave thanks to the transcendent. We thanked God for our blessings—our lives, our loves and the opportunities we enjoyed as Americans. There was, as well, an implicit understanding that as we shared the weight of disappointments and losses our common humanity and hope lessened the burdens. And I can recall the smiles and stories as we passed around photo albums of Thanksgivings past. 

So I would pray for a transcendent Thanksgiving, 2020. That our many customs and traditions would point toward hope for tomorrow. Hopefulness can shoulder a much heavier weight and today we need to lighten the load. Happy Thanksgiving!

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al recently published Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

President Trump (DJT) did everything he could to berate President-elect Joe Biden—to create the impression he was not up to the job. Now he is doing his best to cause his supporters to believe Biden will be an illegitimate President. Polls show (while one can certainly wonder if they are accurate) that 80% of Republicans think Biden’s election was due to fraud. I hope it is not accurate.

Perhaps DJT thinks this is a golf match in which the other side yields to his presence in fear of not being asked back to Mar-a-Lago. This is decidedly not sport. This is about the strength or weakness of our country.

Most Republican position holders (not leaders) know this is simply raw politics taken to the edge regardless of the consequences. Fear stalks their mind. Ironically Republicans had a rather good election, down ballot as they say. DJT, not the Republican Party, was the loser.

I wonder if Republicans consider their success in Congressional and State elections due to fraud. If Democrats were manipulating voting machines they made an unappealing hash of it. 

DJT began chanting fraud several months out from the election. Also there were numerous warnings in all media about the potential of one of our enemies hacking into our voting machines.

Appropriately the United States government concentrated on election security and by all accounts did a good job. Christopher Krebs was in charge and that is where the story gets strange.

Krebs was serving as the first director of the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA). He was originally sworn in on June 15, 2018 as the Under Secretary for the predecessor of CISA, the National Protection and Programs Directorate (NPPD). Mr. Krebs was nominated for that position by DJT in February 2018.

So let’s see if I’ve got that right. DJT appointed a leader who did such a good job that he got fired because he reported that the Administration had protected our elections. 

My hope. We, all Americans, recognize that our patriotism comes with obligations and one obligation is to unify after even close elections. 

Final word. Secretaries of State, for each of the States, should get together on a bipartisan basis and revisit the likelihood of voting changes given mail and electronic options for future elections. Securing a national pattern that can be spelled out in advance would at least help avoid the mess we are in at the present.

Final thought: My Dad, in no uncertain terms, made clear what the phrase “sore loser” means. 

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al recently published Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

 

It is noon on Wednesday. Trump has been lashing out, his conduct is revealing. He believes the path to victory is dicey; he isn’t in control.  

It is now Thursday afternoon. The fog of politics (perhaps war) is less. Joe Biden is now by most news outlets said to be on the cusp of victory. Trump is still lashing out. I got an unsolicited email exhorting me to send money to a legal fund to contest the election.

It is not possible, using the best forensic evidence techniques available; to identify the volume of solicitation email, posts, letters and the like I received in 2020. 

But one thing is clear, very wealthy people decided to spend whatever it takes to create a Blue Wave. In Maine, to defeat Senator Susan Collins, the money poured in; The Bangor Daily News captured the money wave with this headline: “Maine’s US Senate race has attracted so much money that it’s hard to spend it.”

Collins must, on reflection, wonder if there was a conspiracy to defeat her or just a bunch of stupid people, who summer in Maine, misidentifying the local fauna. The polls always showed her behind by well beyond the margin of error; she won by 8 points.

Blue wave? Huh? It is hard to win a national victory on a political game plan dreamed up in the 14th Congressional District of New York City. Progressive? Defund the police, Racism by pigmentation? 

The loser (perhaps) was  Donald J. Trump. He needn’t hire analysts to deduce the reasons. All he needs to do is look in the mirror. Sure he can hire lawyers, thrash about, but he is now the lamest of ducks. There are apparently people who really like the man, but I would wager a guess that much of his support came from people who do not under any circumstances want a “Progressive” revolution.

And I would wage a further guess that his characterization of John McCain as a loser and his constant harassment of, then Arizona Senator Jeff Flake caused him to lose Arizona. I suspect that Barry Goldwater (the legendary Arizona Republican) who insisted on spelling out his thoughts and plans is smiling, somewhere.

Now I realize I have ridden a hobby horse or two in 2020. One of my favorite themes has been there is power in the center, by which I mean voters who are not ideologues. Voters who might respond to my all too simple philosophy of “efficacy”. Don’t worry, there are plenty of speech writers who can add poetry to that blunt one word theme. 

In no particular order here are some other quick thoughts.

The media’s election machinery (pollsters, TV anchors, pundits, and the like) need a gap year. They should spend it in the upper Midwest, starting now. Take your parka. Make things. Punch a time clock. Hang out in the bars (when a vaccine arrives).

Republicans, who have an election conferred title, need to tell Donald J. Trump to cool it. Sacrificing foundational institutions (courts and state governments) for personal gain is, in the larger sense, criminal. The Supreme Court, which has yielded to State prerogatives in this election cycle, should continue to do so. 

Joe Biden was never an ideologue. He was an affable Senator and then Vice-President and derived his national prominence from serving as President Obama’s running and serving mate. He will soon have to go beyond those derivative assets and set a new course using his affability and some very smart aides to bring the White House and Congress together, at least occasionally. At least for two years, Party line votes will simply result in gridlock. And in his last two years, he will have little leverage.

America needs a leadership combination in the White House and Congress that can work through big challenges—challenges that are impossible to predict. It’s called patriotism.

But the bottom line is also clear. If the President, regardless of who he is, cannot shape a leadership that will work together across Party lines to take on the annual responsibilities of making laws and appropriating funds, the chemistry will not be in place to successfully respond to the unexpected. Attacks on the homeland? Another pandemic? Hackers taking over the grid? 

I close with reflections on the Squad and much of the media. The Squad is the media’s delight, they have Wikipedia fame, They are hard-edged and Left, yet feature attractive smiles. They are most often wrong, but never in doubt. They are articulate and their leader, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), is always camera ready. 

The Squad and Trump often defined politics in this divisive year. I would suggest that their respective political parties find more welcoming voices. The Democrats of course have one, likely President-Elect Joe Biden. The Republicans, well Donald Trump will continue to rage and Senator Mitch McConnell will be the Republican’s power broker. But if Trump and McConnell are the Republican face of the next two years, 2022 might just produce a blue wave. Unless, of course, Nancy Pelosi casts a shadow on the President.

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al recently published Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

This column was finished several days ago but held because of last night’s debate. Believing the debate offered no fresh insights, these are my pre- and post-debate views.

Writing about politics is discouraging and unnerving. Unnerving, because we live in a time of rhetorical trip-wires. Words and phrases that seem descriptive turn out to be somehow insulting.

Discouraging, because few writers go beyond Donald Trump’s latest outrage, which is, of course, simply a repetition of a long established pattern of conduct. Trump loves it.

Recall P. T. Barnum who was once interviewed by a woman who told him that she was writing a book, and that it would contain something disagreeable about him. “No matter, madam,” was his reply, “say anything you like about me, but spell my name right — P. T. B-a-r-n-u-m, P. T. Barnum — and I’ll be pleased anyway.” Quote Investigator

One benefit to living in Maryland is that the candidates don’t target the State with advertisements. The State is taken for granted—too bad. If it weren’t for yard signs—dueling shout-outs—you could almost forget we will soon be electing a President. Yet, how nice it is to escape much of the harsh manufactured rhetoric.

There was a time several decades ago when I was deeply involved in elective politics—fortunately a more benign version. During that time, I learned polling analysis under the watchful eye of Bob Teeter, who was then one of the preeminent Republican pollsters. 

One of Bob’s observations was that late campaign momentum usually ran to the candidate’s ceiling. The numerical ceiling was composed of those who were simply not open to the momentum candidate’s appeal. My sense is that President Trump now has the momentum as he campaigns, not for his vision, but against the amalgamation of leftist causes earlier associated with Senator Bernie Sanders. 

But for Mr. Trump there is an unwelcome question—what is the ceiling? My sense is that it is too low for him to win. Unpopular as this view might be, I predict Biden will win because Trump lost. 

While it will be claimed there is now an obligation for a Biden presidency to pursue a Leftist agenda, he will do so at considerable peril. Joe Biden’s finishing momentum in the Democratic primaries was a reflection of Senator Sander’s electoral ceiling. A majority of Democrats didn’t buy his agenda and Biden was the alternative.

If Biden wins, the result, in my view, will be loud and clear. There is a critical mass that, regardless of policy positions, wants decency back in the White House. One notable characteristic of most Trump supporters, past and present, is that while they support many of his policies, they are embarrassed by his conduct.

Joe Biden is campaigning on “decency” and the related theme of uniting Americans. I anticipate that these overriding themes and the President’s inability to control his self-love will prevail. 

But, back to the race as I know it today. In a sense, the “decency” part will be relatively easy—the bar is embarrassingly low. The uniting part is going to be difficult. If Biden is true to the theme, he will reject 20th century socio-economic theories, their costs and failures.

We live in the artificial intelligence (AI) century—databases and machine learning are game changers. Google and Amazon prove the change every single day in most of our lives. Intelligent systems both know us and can shape and distribute messages that influence our lives. 

This capability comes with dangers and opportunities. But, on the opportunity side, intelligent systems must be conceived, built, shaped and led by people whose knowledge of these systems began at elementary school age. Trump and Biden were elementary school age in the 1940s and 50s. 

The pandemic has been instructive on several levels. One word is used over and over to define remedial policies—efficacy. Efficacy means: “capacity for producing a desired result or effect; effectiveness.” While some words are being canceled, “efficacy” should be promoted. Broadly speaking, as we tackle persistent problems that we have the capacity to prevent, 21st Century tools intelligently deployed can overcome problematic inertia. Structural change is needed, not more 20th Century program overlays.

Maybe, starting in elementary school, the word efficacy should be taught, as commonly used and understood words and phrases help shape society. Left, Right and Center should begin to demand efficacy; after all it is our money that is being spent and our children and grandchildren are going to have to pick up the debt tab.  Unrealizable political promises deplete; we certainly don’t need more depletion.

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al recently published Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books. 

America deserves better. Donald Trump didn’t make America great. Nor have any of the hotheads on the Left or Right; they tear at American enlightenment. 

E pluribus unum made America distinctive, aspirational and ultimately powerful. We all contribute or at least have the right to. This is the source of our enlightenment. And make no mistake, right now, in public affairs we are trading on what America has been. While enjoying historic momentum, we are depleting historic advantages.

America, a bold experiment, endures because our Constitution, laws, and institutions have been more right than wrong, adaptable, and resilient. These enduring strengths have protected us during periods of poor political leadership. We are now in one of those periods and the American people know it. Take a look at the polls which periodically measure people’s attitudes toward our political parties and important government, business and societal institutions.

Political Leadership

My assumption is that most of the men and women who are elected to one of the two houses of Congress are reasonably able. Most had to run several campaigns against aggressive foes. 

But, when it comes to courage there is clearly a troubling deficit. Members of Congress no longer go home to work; unfortunately, most emotionally and financially need the government job.  The result: very little sacrificial courage since it is very difficult to run for office outside your political party lane. 

Yet, there are important issues that can only be resolved by persons of goodwill who are willing to work with people whose political brand or constituency is different. Indeed the inability of Congress to even perform basic duties defiles the job they work so hard to keep. 

Outside Party Lines

Let me begin what I hope will be participatory. The question: what challenges can only be resolved across party lines? There are a number of intractable issues on my list, but let me cite only three.

• The underlying freedoms our business communities and their employees enjoy have given America financial power that is almost unimaginable. We continue to be able to finance huge deficits that would swamp other countries. Yet, our greed for debt financing imperils this position as increasingly other sovereign debt, including China’s, are thought to be relatively safe. In the mid to long-term we will be competing against China on more than TikTok. Both political parties conspire to add more debt as they trade costly favors that are buried in omnibus spending bills almost no one understands.

• We have often come together and gotten to know each other through public education and military service. Public education has, in much of America, splintered. At the same time, most of America’s youth do not engage in military service. I suspect the election of Donald Trump surprised so many because Americans increasingly live in demographic silos. Are there ways we can draw on the strength of everyone while getting to know each other?

• Climate change is real. There is a solid case that our dependence on fossil fuels is at the least a contributing cause. There is an irrefutable case that new generation nuclear energy when paired with wind and solar will supply our energy needs while creating a much cleaner environment. But, we continue to take no for an answer as advocates hold the rudder tightly in roiling seas. 

Action

Alliances matter—we learned that in elementary school math. Power in most things comes from addition not subtraction. Are there public challenges that can break apart societal silos and create new alliances? Only, I believe, if there is a shift in how we use political leadership instead of letting political leadership use us.

America is, for very clever and aggressive entrepreneurs, a land of copious amounts of milk and honey. After a businesswoman or man has made a great deal of money, they often start charitable organizations that seek to improve the lives of people who have been less fortunate. The challenges America faces today put it in the less fortunate category when it comes to political leadership and government outcomes. 

According to Pew Research approximately one-third of the electorate regards itself as independent of the two political parties. A well-funded and thoroughly bi-partisan organization should be formed and concentrate on a set of issues that will move independents and their voting patterns. It is time for those who have done very well to become politically active and to do so outside the divisions that have infantilized our politics. 

This should not be a do-gooder organization that at best receives a tepid response. Its mission, principles and signature issues should be thoroughly poll tested so that it can shape its messages in an appealing way. Its organization brand must have energy and the leadership, skill and passion.

An effective independent organization will differ from a political party. It will not field candidates, but will put its thumb on the election scale by endorsing and advertising for candidates prepared to work on crucial issues outside the rhetorical echo chambers of intense partisanship.

It is often said we are evenly divided between Left and Right. Polls show otherwise, yet the bases of both political parties have outsized power. They are passionate and disciplined; only a countervailing force that is equally passionate and disciplined can move America beyond the intense polarization that is bleeding our body-politic. 

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al recently published Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books.