Political Winds by Al Sikes

It is now clear. What is thought to be the Donald Trump movement is largely an “I’m not going to take it anymore” rebellion. Trump, while not a cheese sandwich, is to some degree irrelevant but fortunate. His political timing enables his political success. Recall, he was expected to lose in 2016.

The ideological and political forces that make up the Far Left are largely spent, both literally and figuratively. Identity politics is its latest fashion.

To some degree, and the degree is elusive, it is not clear whether Trump helps or hurts the rebellious cause. I believe he hurts it. There is a considerable volume of Center-Right voters who will not vote for him.

People who write and edit legacy media throw around the phrase “Far Right” as an epithet. Rarely do we encounter the phrase “Far Left.” And since “Far Right” branding is thought to be injurious to conservative candidates, all but Centrists are said to be “Far Right”.

Current branding is easy to find in European politics. While most people in America do not pay much attention to European politics, the “Far Right” (as it is called) is doing so well electorally that some commentators on the Left feel compelled to warn of incipient Nazism. If every far-left movement recalled Stalin, that would at least even the score. But certainly if there is evidence of Nazism the harshest light should target it.

Europe is now deep in a political cycle with America not far behind. In America, if the nomination to be the Democrat nominee was still open I suspect Democrats would be trying to find their Center. But they have decided to stand pat. Warning: four years ago Biden seemed to have some Centrist credentials; not anymore.

So what is the fuel for a resurgent move to the Right? My headline words are: Immigration, Inflation, Gender and Abortion. I’ll repeat one word: Immigration.

Historically, there has been an underlying assumption that the United States government controlled its borders with other countries and that newly arriving immigrants would go through a step-by-step qualifying procedure. Most voters now assume we have lost control and that the loss is dangerous. Biden and Kamala Harris are perceived to be at fault. If you have the top jobs, the burden of disruption is yours. Shouldering the burden requires timely and effective action.

Moving on, people have assumed gender continuity to the extent it has been thought about at all. But, let me be specific, the razor edge in politics refers to gender fluidity, men transitioning to women and competing in women’s sports has led to outrage. The upcoming Olympics will keep this story topical. And many are also startled and angry that surgical procedures are being used at relatively early ages to affirm a youth’s perception of his/her sex.

Next, the reversal of Roe v Wade brought abortion back to the front page. Inevitably it also caused politics in religion to spike. This development bites. Trump, notwithstanding conduct the church would presumably find abhorrent, finds himself favored by a majority of those who wear comfortably the Evangelical Christian designation. Trump is perceived to be more pro-life than Biden and is aided by the Left pulling Biden toward the extreme—the right to an abortion just before delivery.

Inflation. This is a non-partisan issue. Steep price increases hurt whoever occupies the White House. And control of inflation is not ripe for quick solutions as its underlying forces are not easy to influence, much less control.

As noted, Trump is the beneficiary of much of the societal angst. Biden, well he is a bit like a kite. When the winds are conflicting he seems weak.

Afghanistan was particularly harmful. The wind favored a withdrawal but no one favored withdrawal at any cost and that is what we got. It was indelibly attached to our brain by excruciating images. The damaging images cannot be reversed. I suspect we will see them over and over in political advertising.

The other irreversible issue is age. Biden’s age and infirmities are easily assessed. We all assess the drag age has in our own lives. And the more youthful voters see this as they look at the older generations in their own families.

So here is the wager. Democrats seem to be wagering that Trump’s immorality will result in his defeat. I wouldn’t bet the house on that outcome. A strong wind is in charge, not weak candidates.

Recollection

Pardon this short aside provoked by recalling the early 1980s and tax reform.

The next successful convergence of ideas needs to confront our financial mess—national revenues way behind costs. The convergence must provide new sources of revenue and not on the back of American workers. Perhaps the challenge will draw leaders from both political parties as happened when Jack Kemp (R) worked successfully with Bill Bradley (D) and Dick Gephardt (D) on tax reform.

These Members were not post-partisan. All three ran for President. I believe the two athletes recognized that some degree of team play was essential to victory. And, so my younger readers do not have to go to Wikipedia—Jack Kemp was for many years the successful quarterback of the Buffalo Bills and Bill Bradley was an All-Star forward for the New York Knicks.

Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books.