Last November, progressives in Maryland were thrilled when Democratic candidate Wes Moore was elected governor in a landslide after defeating nine much more well-known opponents in a Democratic primary. They were even more thrilled when progressive Democratic candidates were elected to replace moderate Democratic members and Republican members in the Maryland House of Delegates and the Maryland Senate. Those elections further solidified the Democratic veto- proof supermajorities in both houses of the General Assembly.
Going into the 2014 General Assembly session, progressives seemed to be large and in charge. They looked forward to further advancing their progressive public policy agenda.
As the 90-day session begins to wind down, that has not been the case, especially on tax and budget matters. It is increasingly clear the Democratic supermajorities are not monolithic, nor is the Governor fully embracing an aggressive progressive tax and budget agenda.
This outcome was not expected when Governor Moore presented his proposed state budget in mid-January. Then there was consensus that a balanced state budget would be easily approved before or by the end of the session as required by the Maryland Constitution.
Recently that consensus has been shaken to the core based on five consecutive revised State Board of Revenue Estimates projecting state budget deficits will be the largest since the “Great Recession” which began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009.
Next fiscal year, the deficit is projected to reach $1 billion. In fiscal year 2027, the last year of Governor Moore’s first term, it is projected to grow to $1.3 billion. A year later, it is projected to more than double to $3 billion and could be $4 billion the following fiscal year. These projections do not include the impact of funding to address a $ 3.1 billion deficit in the state Transportation Trust Fund and $8 billion to fully implement the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future (The Kirwan Report).
As a result, there has been intense and even contentious debate in the Democratic supermajorities on what to do and when to do it. The answer depends on who you ask and where they sit.
The Democratic House majority leader, Democratic chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, and the Democratic chair of the House Appropriations Committee, are united in saying the General Assembly needs to raise taxes and needs to raise them now. The Democratic senate president and Democratic chair of the Senate Budget and Taxation Committee are saying not so fast, we do not need to raise taxes in this session.
Governor Moore agrees with the Senate leader’s position there is no need for tax increases for now. Asked if that position would hold beyond the current year, Moore has said “I just know that the bar for raising taxes not just this year, but for every single year for me, it’s going to be a very high bar.” His budget secretary has elaborated on Moore’s overall strategy on budgets and taxes going forward by saying “These revenue trends continue to underscore the necessity of taking bold steps to improve our economy, create jobs and bring new businesses and population to Maryland.”
No doubt the Moore administration is aware of the results when Maryland Democratic General Assembly supermajorities approved a wide range of tax and fee increases proposed by progressive Democratic Governor Martin O’Malley. With a “Change Maryland” message that resonated with Republican, Democratic, and unaffiliated voters, Republican Larry Hogan won two terms as governor and now has an opportunity to be elected to the U.S. Senate.
As is almost always the case In Maryland, final decisions over increasing state spending and increasing state taxes and fees will come down to how much and when?
The larger question is how Democratic Party control of the state government will be impacted if the current divide between the shrinking moderate wing of the party and the growing progressive wing of the party on budget and tax matters is not resolved.
One unforeseen obstacle to resolving this divide are comments made recently by one high profile progressive Democratic county executive and agreed to by another.
Anne Arundel County Executive Steuart Pittman said the failure of long-standing progressive “tax reform” goals to gain support in the General Assembly is because “Loopholes are everywhere for interests that lobby for loopholes. It’s baked into the system. Legislators survive on a diet of campaign contributions to get into office and to stay there. The largest donors tend to be the very interests lobbying for loopholes and opposing a fair distribution of the tax burden.” Montgomery County Executive Marc Elrich agreed with that observation.
Such remarks are not going to help advance progressive positions in the General Assembly even when their party has supermajorities.
Given all the above, one can ask if the dynamics in the state legislature may be open to real change. What if Republican members who are accustomed to being largely irrelevant on budget and tax matters in Annapolis, forge a working relationship with moderate Democratic members on issues of common interest such as spending and taxes?
Likely? No. Probable? No. Possible? Maybe.
In politics anything is possible. Ask Larry Hogan and Wes Moore. I suspect both were told early on when they launched their gubernatorial campaigns that winning was not possible.
David Reel is a public affairs and public relations consultant who lives in Easton.
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