Republican gubernatorial hopeful Kelly Schulz speaks to reporters outside the State House on Thursday, as Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan Jr. listens. Photo by Bruce DePuyt

Undeterred by shouts and catcalls from supporters of rival Dan Cox — and Cox himself — Republican gubernatorial candidate Kelly Schulz and Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan Jr., denounced a Democratic effort to boost her main rival in the July 19 primary.

Hogan, who is term-limited, and his former commerce secretary stood in blistering heat outside the State House, where — surrounded by sign-waving backers — they slammed the Democratic Governors Association’s plan to spend more than $1 million in the weeks leading up to Election Day.

According to companies that monitor media spending, the association intends to run an ad called “Meet Dan,” a certain reference to the conservative firebrand. The Frederick County state delegate is one of four Republicans running for governor and, according to one new independent poll, he is the frontrunner.

In races around the country, Democratic groups have run ads that appear to be critical of far-right candidates but which have the real goal of boosting office-seekers who might struggle in a general election.

Hogan and Schulz offered a full-throated rejection not just of the DGA but of Cox as well. Cox and his family, including a newborn, having gotten wind of the event, stood just feet away, occasionally shouting back at the governor and his protege. Cox supporters waved signs and accused the pair of lying and Schulz of ducking debates.

It was, in short, as raucous and tense an event as tends to occur in Maryland politics.

The governor said that “Democrats are so scared about losing again, that they are now enabling, emboldening and embracing a QAnon conspiracy theorist, someone who bused people to the Capitol on Jan. 6 and called Vice President Pence ‘a traitor’ as the Capitol was under attack.”

Cox, who has the endorsement of former President Trump, has advanced baseless theories about the 2020 elections, including the vote-count in Maryland.

“The people who scream all day long about democracy being at stake are willing to play Russian roulette with the Maryland State House just to win an election,” Hogan said. “It’s the worst kind of hypocrisy.”

Schulz called Cox a “lying conspiracy theorist who is a danger to our party and to our state,” and she accused Democrats of making a strategic investment in the GOP primary to save money in November.

“The math is easy,” she said. “Spend a million now and save $5 million by not having to face me in the general election. … I am a threat standing in the way of one-party rule in Annapolis.”

Remarkably, the rally also featured the chairman of the Maryland Republican Party, Dirk Haire. Although he acknowledged that his post requires him to be neutral in party primaries, he called on GOP voters to be vigilant. “Don’t get fooled by the national Democrats and their rich liberal cronies,” he said.

Schulz drew applause from GOP lawmakers and other supporters when she pledged to “fight back” against the Democrats’ plan to sway the GOP electorate.

According to Kantar, a New York-based research firm, the DGA intends to spend $1.037 million over a two-week period starting on July 5. Mail-in ballots have already gone out and early voting begins on July 7.

A DGA spokesman declined to provide the “Meet Dan” ad. A spokesman for the Maryland Democratic Party declined to make Chair Yvette Lewis available for an interview.

Speaking to reporters after the Schulz rally, Cox said the statements from her camp “are proof that we’re winning.” He cast Hogan’s denunciation of him as a distraction from the increase in the state gas tax that is set to take place at midnight Thursday.

“This is all a distraction from the establishment that is going to crush the people at midnight,” he said. “And they’re doing nothing about it.”

In a series of cell-phone videos posted to social media, Cox accused Schulz of running a “failing” and “lousy” campaign. “This whole smear campaign is laughable. It’s hilarious,” he said. “They’re desperate. It’s going to be exposed and they’re going to fall into their own pit on this one…”

There was a heavy security presence during the Schulz rally. When a sign-holding Cox supporter tried to crowd in next to Schulz supporters before the rally, Schulz strategist Doug Mayer ordered him to leave. The two men then exchanged insults.

Trump’s “hand-picked candidate”

The 30-second spot hit the internet late Thursday. It is, effectively, two ads in one.

The first section appears designed to appeal to the GOP base. The second part labels Cox “too conservative.”

Speaking over graphics and video, a narrator calls Cox “Donald Trump’s hand-picked candidate for Maryland governor.”

“Cox worked with Trump, trying to prove the last election was a fraud. 100% pro-life, he’s fighting to end abortion in Maryland,” the narration continues. “And Cox will protect the Second Amendment at all costs, refusing to support any federal restrictions on guns, even pushing to put armed guards in every school.”

“Dan Cox. Too close to Trump,” the ad concludes. “Too conservative for Maryland.”

A risky strategy, critics warn

D.C.-based Democratic groups like the DGA have spent money in GOP primary races across the country in an effort to boost fringe candidates thought to be less attractive in a general election contest. In many cases, the gambit has paid off, but the practice is not without its critics.

They argue that the country is harmed when races don’t play out as expected.

Democratic strategist Howard Wolfson told The Washington Post it is “very dangerous and potentially very risky to elevate people who are hostile to democracy.”

“Either this is a crisis moment or it isn’t,” said Wolfson, who has worked for former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and others. “And if it is — which it is — you don’t play cute in a crisis.”

In a statement, DGA spokesman Sam Newton defended the association’s spending in Maryland.

He faulted “Republican politicians and organizations” who repeat false claims about the 2020 election, “pander to conspiracies or are simply too cowardly to issue a full-throated condemnation.”

“Educating the public on the MAGA extremism, and cowardice, of today’s Republican party is essential to ensuring all citizens have the facts,” he added. “It’s time for the GOP to look in the mirror and have a reckoning with itself, instead of trying to find someone else to blame.”

The new ad buy is not the DGA’s first foray into the Schulz-Cox race. The organization has sponsored two surveys of Maryland Republicans, both of which showed Cox in the lead.

Although subsequent independent polling produced similar results, Schulz loyalists were quick to denounce the DGA-funded surveys, calling them an attempt to sway the electorate.

By Bruce DePuyt

The four Republicans running for governor live approximately 70 miles apart. But getting them to appear together has proven to be difficult.

The four have appeared simultaneously only once — at an online forum sponsored by Bethesda Monthly and Bethesda Beat on June 8, which also featured Democratic candidates. Given the tortured history, it appears likely that when the July 19 primary rolls around, that event will represent the only time Dan Cox, Robin Ficker, Kelly Schulz and Joe Werner engaged in a true debate.

The lack of GOP debates isn’t for a lack of effort on the part of civic groups, media organizations and other would-be sponsors. Many have tried to draw the candidates together, so that the state’s 986,722 registered Republican voters can take stock of the candidates for themselves, only to fall short.

Two of the candidates — Cox, a state delegate, and Ficker, a former delegate and frequent candidate — have accused Schulz, the former state Commerce secretary, of ducking debates, saying she prefers to avoid unscripted and potentially adversarial settings.

The Schulz campaign has acknowledged that it isn’t keen on debates, but not for the reasons Cox and Ficker have alleged. Rather, they say it’s part of a concerted strategy to avoid propping up Cox, an  attorney endorsed by former President Trump who chartered buses to Washington, D.C., on Jan. 6, 2021, and who tweeted that former vice-president Mike Pence was a “traitor” during the ensuing melee at the Capitol.

“Quite frankly I think she’s been on-stage with him more than she needs to be,” said Schulz spokesman Mike Demkiw on Monday, echoing past criticisms. “He’s a lunatic. He’s a liar. He got a child rapist out of jail.”

Cox declined to respond to voice messages and emails on Monday. But in a phone interview, Ficker, the GOP’s nominee for Montgomery County executive in 2018, who has run for multiple offices over the past four decades, said Schulz doesn’t perform well in candidate forums.

“Kelly is refusing to participate in any debates,” said Ficker. “I don’t think she’s a good debater. I don’t think she can think on her feet. She’s too scripted and they don’t want her to be surprised.”

Ficker said Schulz declined invitations to take part in a Maryland Public Television/WBAL-TV debate, a WBFF-TV (Fox 45) debate, and a Maryland State Bar Association debate. He said she also rejected invitations from the Montgomery County Republican Party and to attend candidate forums in Howard, Carroll and Frederick counties.

“She’s only appeared before one Black group, one time, where she gave an opening statement. She answered one question. And then said she had to leave early and gave a closing statement,” Ficker said. “There’s never been any opportunity to question her.”

Ficker called Schulz’s rationale for refusing to appear alongside Cox “complete nonsense” and “a lie.”

Although he has accused Schulz of ducking debates, Cox’s track record is also mixed. He was a last-minute no-show at a Maryland Municipal League debate in Ocean City last week, a forum for candidates of both parties that Schulz attended. And he declined to tape an interview with MPT, the station reported.

MPT held a Democratic primary debate on June 6 and hoped to do a Republican debate as well. When that didn’t come together, the station decided to record one-on-one interviews with the GOP candidates instead. Those conversations aired on Friday.

Schulz offered a light recital of her stump messages, focusing on gas prices, parental “choice,” public safety and job creation. She answered an abortion access question directly, but she dodged other questions posed by host Jeff Salkin, including whether she is an “anti-Trump” Republican, whether the GOP primary contest “is close” and whether Maryland should impose a limit on the harvest of female crabs.

It was unclear why Cox did not tape a sit-down with the station.

Unlike the Republicans, Democrats have held dozens of forums and debates over the past nine months. Ficker said the GOP’s most plugged-in voters — those who participate in primaries — are the losers. “The candidates know the most difficult questions to ask the other candidates,” he said. “The public deserves to see the differences and deserves to see the reactions.”

Schulz, Cox spar over Jan. 6

The Bethesda Magazine debate — the only one to feature nearly all of the Democratic candidates and all four Republicans — offered the candidates the opportunity to discuss a wide range of issues. It also showcased some of the areas in which Schulz, who has the enthusiastic backing of Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan Jr. (R), and Cox differ.

The most notable difference centered around the Jan. 6 insurrection.

“January 6 was an insurrection on our Capitol,” she said. “It is a blight on America for what we have been able to see and hear and experience on Jan. 6. But we have moved beyond that.” She said it is important to “rebuild our party” and — in a jab at Cox — said “we do not want to continue to call our vice-presidents traitors.”

Cox replied by calling free speech “a sacred thing in America, and when we have issues before us that need to be examined, I think we need to focus on those.”

“People are concerned and fed up with politicians trying to smear one another,” he added. He declined to say whether he thought the insurrection represented an act of sedition or whether Trump was responsible for the siege.

Schulz strategist warns of Democratic ‘interference’

In a related development, a Schulz adviser warned her supporters on Monday that national Democratic groups — primarily the Democratic Governors Association — may be preparing to “interfere” in Republican primaries. In a memo that was distributed to reporters, strategist Doug Mayer highlighted news reports on DGA efforts to boost “fringe” candidates by labeling them “too conservative.”

While the ads have the feel of attack ads, the reports contend, they have the potential to hurt more moderate candidates — those with a better shot of winning in November — by boosting rivals offering a Trumpier message.

“This idea is nothing new,” wrote Mayer, a former Hogan spokesman, “but it has gained considerable steam and financial support in recent months and we have reason to believe the DGA might try something similar here in Maryland.”

DGA deputy communications director Sam Newton declined to say whether the organization is planning to run pro-Cox ads in Maryland. In a statement, he said “it’s telling that [Schulz’s] campaign is already looking for excuses.”

“Instead of pointing fingers and lashing out at pollsters, she should stop dodging debates and answer for her radical record like pushing a total ban on abortion and trying to strip funding from public schools to fund private schools,” Newton said, referring to Schulz’s support for charter schools and abortion restrictions while serving in the House of Delegates. In the MPT interview, Schulz said “nothing will change” in Maryland on abortion policy if Roe vs Wade is overturned and she pledged robust support for public education.

By Bruce DePuyt

Eight Democratic candidates for governor — former Prince George’s County Executive Rushern L. Baker III, former Clinton administration official Jon Baron, Comptroller Peter V.R. Franchot, former Attorney General Douglas Gansler, former Obama administration official Ashwani Jain, former U.S. Education Secretary John King, author and former nonprofit CEO Wes Moore, and former Maryland and U.S. Labor Secretary Tom Perez — shared the stage at a debate hosted by Maryland Public Television on Monday. Photo by Danielle E. Gaines.

Several of the Democrats running for governor used the first televised debate of the campaign to introduce new attacks on various rivals, clashing over support for Maryland’s ambitious new education funding plan and personal ethics.

The attacks created several tense moments during the hour-long Maryland Public Television debate. While mild by the standards of Capitol Hill or cable news, the accusations marked the most pointed exchanges of the months-long campaign. The barbs flew as voters prepare to receive mail-in ballots ahead of the July 19 primary, with early voting set to begin on July 7.

Author and former non-profit CEO Wes Moore launched a broadside against Comptroller Peter V.R. Franchot (D), accusing the state’s chief tax collector of “pay-for-play” — of using his post to leverage donations. Moments later, Moore’s campaign emailed reporters a list of instances in which companies that received contracts from the Board of Public Works, on which Franchot serves, donated to his campaign shortly before or after key votes.

“The people who will get Peter Franchot’s support often-times are those who pay for it,” Moore charged. “Twelve times that has happened, that he has offered a contract to someone who has donated to his campaign. So when we’re talking about integrity, pay-for-play is not part of that integrity pledge.”

The documents distributed by the Moore camp catalogued more than $60,000 in donations from companies that received more than $2 billion in state contracts.

Maryland’s comptroller serves alongside the state’s governor and treasurer on the contract-approving board. Contracts originate with state agencies, universities, hospitals and other institutions and Moore made no claim that Franchot was steering state business to cronies.

Given the chance to respond, Franchot ignored Moore’s attack. Instead, he cast himself as a fiscal moderate who is socially compassionate. “But I say to people, I’m not a robot,” he said, a bit incongruously. “I’m not going to do exactly what the powerful people in Annapolis want me to do.”

Pressed by reporters after the debate, Franchot said he was “proud” of the contributions his campaign has received.

Moore also found himself on the receiving end of an attack when former U.S. Labor Secretary and DNC chair Tom Perez suggested that Moore’s work as an investment banker undercut his claim of being an ethical “public servant.”

“From 2007 to 2012, I was fighting predatory lenders,” Perez said. “During that same time, Wes was working at Citibank. Citibank was one of many banks that were very bad actors in the foreclosure crisis. I took on big banks and I personally don’t know how working at Citibank is public service.”

Moore responded by complaining that “zero” Wall Street executives went to prison for their role in the collapse of the economy. “That’s not getting stuff done,” Moore chided. Perez noted that he worked in the civil rights division, not the fraud unit.

Moore also accusing Perez of actively seeking support from Black voters despite being the subject of a no-confidence vote by the Congressional Black Caucus. “So the truth is, Tom, when you talk about what it means to hold people accountable and what it means to fight for the little guy, the little guy is the one whose actually been oppressed by you,” Moore said.

Perez countered, saying that one of his “strongest supporters” is “my good friend Keith Ellison,” a former Congressional Black Caucus member. “When I got to be DNC chair, we didn’t have the White House. We didn’t have the Senate and we didn’t have the House,” Perez offered. “Now we have the White House, the Senate and the House.”

Former U.S. Education Secretary John King accused Moore of serving on the board of a “predatory for-profit college that was taking advantage of students.”

Moore said as a board member at American Public Education, which included American Military University, he was not aware of an investigation by the state of Massachusetts for predatory lending practices. The investigation started in 2017 and he left the board at the end of that year.

“The reason and the focus that I had there was in ensuring that our veterans would get access to education,” Moore said.

The school subsequently reached a settlement to pay a $270,000 fine to the state in August 2018.

King said the system he helped the Obama administration set up to cancel debt for students who attended colleges with predatory lending practices, is once again operating under the Biden administration.

Franchot was accused of rewriting history with regard to the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future, a landmark education funding initiative approved by the General Assembly in 2021. During legislative debates, Franchot spoke against the proposal, particularly its multi-billion-dollar price tag, which flowed from recommendations put forward by the Commission on Innovation and Excellence in Education, chaired by former University System of Maryland chancellor William “Brit” Kirwan.

“I support the Kirwan plan. I’m going to implement it,” he said, making no mention of his prior opposition to it. “We’re going to do things like putting the money into where the kids and the teachers can actually benefit from it.” He told reporters after the debate that his early comments reflected concerns about the Blueprint’s cost, concerns he still has.

Perez chided Franchot for his apparent reversal. “Budgets are moral documents,” he said. “They reflect the views of an individual and the values of a community.”

The candidates make their case to voters

With the primary now just seven weeks away and polls showing that large numbers of likely voters in both parties remain undecided, the candidates also used the debate to appeal directly to the electorate.

While they have debated numerous times across Maryland, the MPT forum provided an unusual opportunity for voters to see the candidates without leaving home.

Former prosecutor and state Attorney General Doug Gansler sought to distinguish himself as “the only pro-business, pro-law enforcement candidate” in the field.

“This election is about crime and criminal justice,” he said. He claimed to be the only candidate with relevant experience, and he reiterated his pledge to hire 1,000 new police officers and to restore security personnel to every Maryland school.

Perez stressed his experience in local government, as state labor secretary and in the Obama cabinet, and he touted his endorsement from the Washington Post.

Franchot said he would have “zero tolerance for repeat violent offenders” and would work to keep them “off the streets.” He called for a reinstitution of “community policing.” He also pledged to open community health clinics within a short walk or drive for every Marylander.

Moore, a best-selling author whose father died when he was young, played up his military experience, his private sector work and his efforts to fight poverty through a national non-profit.

King, who focused on progressive policy positions throughout the debate, said he would be the “education governor” for the state of Maryland and had a proven track record of expanding educational opportunities.

He was responding to a question about how to address learning loss because of the COVID-19 pandemic as the broadcast abruptly ended, having run out of time. On air, King said he would mobilize a statewide tutoring corps to help kids catch up. After the cameras stopped rolling, he also said he would dramatically expand access to mental health counseling for young people. That, King said, would require a greater infusion of state funding, which he would achieve through corporate tax reform

“We need a governor who’s willing to invest more resources in our highest need schools,” King said. “…The other candidates have been afraid to talk about revenue … I think we can get there through asking large corporations and multi-millionaires to pay their fair share.”

Former Prince George’s County Executive Rushern L. Baker III said his administration would be marked by a commitment to “talking truth to power.” He lamented more than 2,000 “mostly young Black men in Baltimore City” have been “slaughtered” over the last eight years. “Let’s be honest. Nobody says anything. Nobody gives a damn because they’re Black.” He played up his experience in Prince George’s where crime fell during his tenure.

Entrepreneur Jon Baron said Maryland must re-evaluate the practice of funding programs without regard for whether they work. He said the state must be more systematic about putting tax dollars into programs that have been proven to get results.

Former Obama administration official Ashwani Jain took aim at “extreme sentences” for children and the use of for-profit prisons. He advocated for improved rehabilitation services, free public transit and enhanced workforce development.

In the crowded Democratic field, perennial candidate Ralph Jaffe and former college lecturer and founder of the Bread and Roses socialist party Jerome Segal, were excluded from the stage.

According to a Baltimore Sun/University of Baltimore poll — the first independent survey of the campaign season — released Sunday, Jain garnered support from 2% of those polled and Baron, Jaffe and Segal attracted support from 1%.

Segal said he was considering legal action against the station; Maryland Public Television said Monday he would be invited to discuss his candidacy on a show soon.

The debate was moderated by Maryland Public Television anchor Jeff Salkin. Three journalists asked questions to the candidates, WBAL-TV news anchor Deborah Weiner, AFRO-American Newspapers news editor Alexis Taylor, and radio host Clarence Mitchell IV.

The debate will air today from 7 to 8 p.m. on MPT-HD, WBAL-TV, and WBAL-AM. It will also be available to watch at mpt.org/livestream and the MPT YouTube channel.

By Bruce DePuyt.  Danielle E. Gaines and Nene Narh-Mensah contributed to this report.

The one and only Oprah Winfrey will interview Democratic gubernatorial contender Wes Moore during a virtual political fundraiser for Moore’s campaign in June. Photo by Getty Images/Getty Images for Global Citizen.

Democratic candidate for governor Wes Moore likes to say he’s showing “Moore-mentum” as he racks up endorsements from key political leaders and interest groups.

Now, he is getting a boost from one of America’s biggest celebrities: Oprah Winfrey is coming to town, virtually, to help Moore raise money.

Winfrey, according to the Moore campaign, will interview the candidate “about leadership and the challenges families in Maryland are facing” on the evening of June 14. Ticket prices for the virtual conversation start at $250.

“When I first interviewed Wes Moore in 2010, I was impressed by his sense of integrity and leadership qualities,” Winfrey said in a statement provided by the campaign. “I look forward to our conversation and hearing more about his vision for the people of Maryland.”

Winfrey has interviewed Moore on a few occasions since he broke into public consciousness with his 2010 bestseller, “The Other Wes Moore,” and he also hosted a show on The Oprah Winfrey Network. Winfrey is certainly responsible for spreading the word about Moore’s up-from-the-bootstraps personal journey.

But as CNN reported when it took a hard look at Moore’s biography earlier this spring, Winfrey may have contributed to the impression that Moore grew up on the rough-and-tumble streets of Baltimore City, which was not the case.

A campaign appearance with Winfrey could be a double-edged sword for Moore: It will undoubtedly create buzz, add to a sense of momentum, and reinforce the unspoken argument by Moore fans that he is the closest thing to Barack Obama that Maryland politics has produced (and Obama was aided by a well-timed Oprah endorsement when he was first running for president in 2008). On the other hand, it’s a celebrity lending her celebrity to a candidate with an air of celebrity already.

“I’m grateful for Oprah’s friendship and I’m grateful for her lifetime of leadership,” Moore said. “I’m excited to come together with her for this important conversation about the leadership required to face head on the challenges that families in Maryland face, the role of governors, and the path forward.”

Schulz sees a winner in crimefighting

Former Maryland Commerce Secretary Kelly Schulz, a Republican candidate for governor, leaned into two of her top campaign themes on Tuesday — crimefighting and the record of her top GOP primary opponent, Del. Dan Cox.

The Schulz campaign launched a 30-second digital ad Tuesday spotlighting a case Cox handled in 2020 and 2021 as a defense attorney representing an Eastern Shore man who was jailed on charges that he sexually assaulted a 13-year-old girl. It then seeks to contrast Cox’s legal work with the views of his running mate, attorney Gordana Schifanelli.

“Dan Cox fought to get a client charged with child rape out of jail because of COVID,” a female narrator says at the top of the ad. “But his running mate wants the death penalty.”

The ad goes on to show footage of a TV appearance Schifanelli made.

“I am for death penalty for violent criminals who go and rape 5-year-olds,” she says in the clip.

Cox’s client, the ad continues, is considered “a Tier 3 sex offender…and now he lives less than half a mile from a school.”

The ad concludes: “Republicans — even his own running mate — can’t trust Dan Cox.”

Also on Tuesday, the Schulz campaign announced the formation of a group called the Law Enforcement for Kelly Coalition.

The announcement was accompanied by a minute-long video featuring seven Republican sheriffs from around the state — Craig Robertson of Allegany County, Jim Fredericks of Anne Arundel County, Mike Evans of Calvert County, Jim DeWees of Carroll County, Jeff Gahler of Harford County, Gary Hoffman of Queen Anne’s County, and Tim Cameron of St. Mary’s County — who form the law enforcement coalition’s steering committee. Five of the seven are featured in their uniforms in the ad.

“We need someone who is going to support law enforcement and be tough on crime, and Kelly Schulz is just the lady who is going to get the job done,” Gahler says in the ad. Several say Schulz will have their backs if she’s elected governor.

“For me it is simple, as governor I will treat members of law enforcement like heroes and criminals like criminals,” Schulz said in a statement.

Gansler offers plan to fight crime in Baltimore and beyond

Former state Attorney General Doug Gansler said on Tuesday that if he is elected governor, he would fund the hiring of 1,000 new police officers to patrol communities across Maryland.

Gansler, a Montgomery County Democrat who served two terms as state’s attorney there, also pledged to install 10,000 new street lights in Baltimore, a city he said is experiencing a crime “crisis.”

Speaking to reporters outside city hall, Gansler noted that Baltimore routinely averages more than 300 homicides a year — a staggering number for a city of fewer than 600,000 people. 

“People sit at a red light wondering whether they are going to be the next victim of a carjacking or not,” he said. “And there is no other person running right now who has a scintilla of experience in criminal justice.”

One of ten Democrats running in the July 19 primary, Gansler said he would replicate many of the policies he implemented during 16 years as attorney general and state’s attorney. He said he would re-establish the Criminal Justice Coordinating Council, create drug courts and domestic violence courts in all 24 jurisdictions, and work with the U.S. Attorney’s Office to ensure that all gun crimes get referred to federal court, where convictions trigger mandatory minimum sentences. 

“We want to make sure that we actually have somebody who understands the problem [and] wants to be laser-focused on solving the problems,” he said. “We want to drive crime down while bringing justice up.” 

Baltimore City State’s Attorney candidate Thiru Vignarajah (D) praised Gansler and his running mate, former Hyattsville Mayor Candace Hollingsworth. “If you are running for governor and you are not talking about crime in Baltimore, you do not appreciate the magnitude of the task before you,” Vignarajah told reporters. 

A former deputy state attorney general, Vignarajah is attempting to unseat Marilyn Mosby (D), the city’s embattled prosecutor. Earlier this year he won the backing of Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan Jr. (R).

Beth Hawks, a shop owner in Baltimore, criticized city leaders for their response to the crime spike. “We are helping build a better Baltimore, but we get nothing,” she said. “Our businesses are really struggling.” 

As he has in the past, Gansler praised a rival, former Prince George’s County Executive Rushern L. Baker III (D), who has also made a crime in Baltimore a cornerstone of his gubernatorial bid. “I deeply respect County Executive Baker’s desire to also address crime in Baltimore City and his ideas.” 

By Josh Kurtz and Bruce DePuyt

An early voting station at Southeast Anchor Branch Library in Baltimore during the fall of 2020. Early voting in this year’s primary begins July 7. But who’s ahead in the gubernatorial races? Photo by Elizabeth Shwe.

Maryland voters will begin casting mail-in ballots early next month and the primary is less than 60 days away. But there is a nagging question that just about everyone in Maryland politics is asking: What’s going on in the race for governor?

The lack of independent polling has left journalists, debate planners and — most importantly — voters in the dark about the Democratic and Republican primary contests that will shape the general election in November.

A handful of candidates have released internal polls, but those are generally greeted with skepticism, even when they are conducted by highly respected partisan pollsters. Large news organizations, the traditional bankrollers of public opinion surveys, have yet to provide any, and there is no guarantee they will.

The hunger for a credible reading of the electorate is Topic A among people who follow politics here.

“(It) would be nice to see a poll on this race that isn’t by one of the candidates’ pollsters,” said Michael Ricci, a spokesman for Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan Jr. (R), who will leave office in January, because of term limits.

Josh Tulkin, executive director of the Maryland Sierra Club, took to social media this week to prod news organizations toward action.

“There is a real lack of non-partisan polls that aren’t driven by the campaigns,” Tulkin said in an interview. “The fact that we’re spending so much time trying to figure out the meaning of the freaking Western Maryland straw poll shows just how desperate people are for some indicators about the bigger picture.”

It’s an insider’s lament, for sure, repeated by people who follow and think about Maryland elections all the time. But there are also implications for average voters who may only be focusing on the July 19 primaries now — or may not do so for another several weeks.

This story is based on interviews with more than a dozen current and former elected officials, strategists from both parties, interest group leaders, journalists and debate planners, many of whom requested anonymity to discuss their views candidly.

Among them there was a strong consensus that the desire for an accurate snapshot of the electorate goes well beyond mere curiosity.

Of immediate importance, they said, is that debate organizers need to know who to include and who to leave off the stage. Decades of ratings data confirm that large debates are unwieldy and attract few viewers.

This year, 10 Democrats and four Republicans are running for governor. To justify winnowing the field at public events, organizers need independent surveys.

Interest groups that offer endorsements — like the Sierra Club and many others — often want to know who is competitive before they make decisions. Choosing someone showing support in the low single digits is almost certainly pointless.

The same thought-process holds true for many donors.

News organizations — particularly time-starved broadcasters — that want to compare the candidates’ stances on issues are effectively prevented from doing so when the sheer size of the contests is overwhelming.

And lastly, voters also benefit from public opinion surveys. While many voters never consider the horse-race aspect of a race, many would prefer to vote for a top-tier candidate, to maximize the perceived weight of their vote.

“If polling consistently shows that a candidate is not doing well and has no hope of doing well, then there’s always that possibility that — come Election Day — the folks who were going to vote for that person just stay home or they decide to vote for someone else,” said Todd Eberly, a political science professor at St. Mary’s College of Maryland.

“Unless some polling comes in, folks are going to be going into the voting booth with no clue of who’s in the lead.”

As a general rule, larger news outlets have the financial wherewithal to conduct polls, while smaller ones do not.

Steve Raabe, the owner of OpinionWorks, a firm that has conducted the Baltimore Sun/WYPR-FM/University of Baltimore survey over the past few election cycles, said he has no current plans to do a primary poll, but he stressed that that could change.

In an email, Washington Post Local Editor Mike Semel said the paper plans “two polls for the general [election] in late summer and the fall.”

Pollsters Mileah Kromer, who runs the Goucher College poll, and Patrick Gonzales, who owns a survey research and communications firm in Arnold, said they have no plans to conduct surveys in advance of July 19.

Actions offer possible clues about the races

While there are no independent surveys in public view, many campaigns have the resources to conduct research. The campaigns’ subsequent actions offer intriguing clues about these unpublished polls.

This is particularly true in the closely watched GOP primary for governor, which pits a longtime member of Hogan’s cabinet, former Commerce secretary Kelly Schulz, against Del. Dan Cox, an adherent of former President Trump.

Schulz recently announced a “high six-figure” media buy that includes a spot harshly critical of Cox.

“They have made the choice that they’re going to draw attention to him and tell people that he’s crazy,” said Eberly. “I don’t know that you do that unless you have internal numbers causing you concern.”

(A Democratic Governors Association poll in February found that rank-and-file GOP voters would be more likely to back Cox once they find out he has the former president’s backing. Some Schulz backers scoffed at that survey, though her ad buy suggests it may have been on target.)

Campaign polls on the Democratic side, taken together, suggest that Comptroller Peter V.R. Franchot has been the consistent frontrunner, with many voters still undecided. Franchot appears to be holding the lead with support around 20% of those polled, with former non-profit CEO Wes Moore, former Prince George’s County Executive Rushern L. Baker III and former U.S. Labor Secretary Tom Perez best positioned to overtake him.

After he endorsed Moore late last month, U.S. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D) told Maryland Matters that Moore was the most electable.

“I happen to believe that the electability of Wes Moore exceeds all the others, and I think his chances in the general election are excellent,” said Hoyer, who has lost only one race since 1966. “So that entered into my calculation.”

Former Gov. Parris Glendening (D), also a Moore supporter, noted in an interview that Hoyer can tap premiere polling data any time he wants to.

“He has the resources and the access to so many different people who are doing all kinds of background polling, [so he has] a pretty good feel of what is happening,” Glendening said.

Supporters of other candidates won’t buy that argument, of course. But until voters make their voices heard, the true lay of the land is anyone’s guess.

By Bruce DePuyt