Remember February 28? That was the day the war in Iran started—and just nine days before President Trump, speaking from his Doral, Florida golf club, said the war would be over “very soon.” Like Trump’s triumph in Venezuela, Operation Absolute Resolve, which lasted only two hours and twenty-eight minutes, the action in Iran was fast and furious.
Trump’s “excursion” in Venezuela would be considered a war had its objectives not been achieved so quickly. It is hard to call that military action, shorter than an NFL game, a “war,” especially when compared with the wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan, both of which are described as lasting 20 years.
Did the Venezuela “win” make Trump and Hegseth overconfident?
The President and self-titled Secretary of War Pete Hegseth both relished reporting on the success of the attack on Iran. Hegseth, in particular, seemed unable to contain his pride, especially as videos played at press briefings showing bombs exploding and boats sinking. Neither Trump nor Hegseth said it, but I imagine both saying, “This is our finest hour.”
The giddiness prompted by Iran’s inability to defend itself effectively against American and Israeli forces started to temper when the first reports of casualties were received. To date, 13 American service members have died and more than 500 have been wounded.
Despite avoiding, to date, “boots on the ground,” it has again been proven impossible to win a war without any casualties.
Scroll forward to today. The euphoria of Trump and Hegseth, never really shared by the rest of us, including MAGA Republicans who voted for Trump, is now dissipating. Trump promised to keep America out of wars, right?
In the last few weeks, the war news has become “more complicated.” The reality has set in that videos of explosions are not images of victory, but rather images of destruction. And, instead of watching jets launching from aircraft carriers, we see dozens of oil tankers unable to traverse the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has not been defeated. The promised regime change, just one of a plethora of “objectives” that the President has cited since February 28, either hasn’t happened or may have strengthened Iran’s resolve to not unconditionally surrender. The nuclear material (“nuclear dust?”) has not been recovered and, of course, oil prices have skyrocketed.
Trump and his advisors apparently never considered the possibility that Iran could close the Strait. And analyses now indicate it may take six months to remove the mines Iran has placed in the strait.
Until those mines are removed, even if a “deal” is reached with Iran, the oil market will remain in chaos and gasoline prices in the U.S. will remain sky-high. (Own a car or truck that burns premium gas? I recently paid $5.99 a gallon. How about you?)
America’s crack negotiation team is again headed to Islamabad for more talks with Iran. The team includes non-government employee and Presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner, who splits his time between serving as a top diplomat and making billions of dollars through deals with foreign countries. Kushner is joined by Steve Witcoff, another “real estate guy,” who is at the table because of his golf friendship with Trump. And the newest addition to the team, J.D. Vance, fresh off joining President Trump in insulting Pope Leo, has no meaningful experience in negotiating peace treaties. Vance is the one with the beard.
Experienced diplomats, especially Iran experts, are aghast that a president would send such an inexperienced team and expect to secure an agreement benefitting the U.S. (I am not a fan of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, but what was Rubio doing at a UFC fight with Trump during one recent negotiation session?)
The Iran war may or may not end soon, but Trump already has asked for a $300 billion appropriation to pay for it. And following reports that munitions are now significantly depleted, Trump has proposed a record increase in defense spending: “A generational investment of $1.5 trillion to unleash the American Arsenal of Freedom, marking a 42 percent increase over current funding levels.”
To help pay for the increased defense spending, Trump’s budget proposes more cuts in domestic spending, including large cuts in Low Income Energy Assistance, support for housing, and grants for college education. NIH spending on medical research—efforts trying to find a cure for cancer and other diseases—is cut by $6 billion.
A nasty and hopefully untrue rumor is circulating in Washington that President Trump raised the possibility of awarding himself the Congressional Medal of Honor for launching the war in Iran. Trump is also said to be considering his action in starting the Iran War as ending another war (according to Trump, the “war” Iran has waged against the U.S. since 1979).
Hegseth, meanwhile, continues to fire miliary leaders who disagree with him. Secretary of the Navy John Phelan, a billionaire businessman and art collector, was fired a few days ago, apparently for not being as enthusiastic about Hegseth’s leadership at the Pentagon as Hegseth himself.
The reality that the U.S. is in a real war is just now setting in for most of us. With the help of God (who should not be presumed to be on America’s or anyone else’s side in the war), it will end soon. But maybe it won’t. And if it continues, and if Iran finds a way to remind the U.S. not to count chickens before they hatch, America will get a fresh lesson in humility that will outlast both Trump and Hegseth.
J.E. Dean writes on politics, government, goldendoodles, and other subjects. A former counsel on Capitol Hill and public affairs consultant, Dean is an advocate for democracy, sanity, and the rule of law.
