Hamas had been decimated. Hezbollah as well. Syria? Well, Assad is living in Russia.
Israel, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Mossad (Israel’s intelligence agency), dominates the Middle East militarily even though at the expense of international approval. As it often turns out, international approval doesn’t win wars.
President Trump saw an opening. He used a charm offensive on the Sheikdoms, government-to-government leverage on the Egyptians, and raw power on the Iranians, and it is said, threatening language with Netanyahu, to arrive at a moment of rare hope in the Middle East.
He sensed the time was right, and it was. Hamas’ hostages are now home, and it appears the Palestinian’s have an opening. An opening, resulting from Netanyahu’s use of raw power, which put Israel on a diplomatic back foot, international standing can make a difference.
Congratulations, President Trump. Understanding and using leverage is an inescapable leadership asset. How does this international success translate at home?
Tariffs are a centerpiece of the President’s domestic agenda and were always going to hurt agriculture. They are. And we are facing off with China, which has a dominant position in minerals that are crucial in some of the most advanced technologies.
In parallel, a variety of necessary (not discretionary) consumer costs are going up, and the polls say the President is having real problems with the unaffiliated voter. They care more about their pocketbook than peace in the Middle East.
Also people care more about their health than grocery prices. The President’s health care leader, Robert F Kennedy Jr (RFKJ) has sown conflict and confusion. Measles are on the rise. “What do I do?” people ask about the newest Covid vaccine, Etc. Plus, most of the doctors who deal directly with patients are not fans of RFKJ.
By the way, France is providing a sneak (or not so sneak) preview. Its balance sheet is “a big ugly mess”. Successive governments have failed. Demonstrators are having an influential moment. America still has time to turn the corner, but the big debt clock is saying we won’t. History will be harsh on the last generation that had a chance and failed. Mr. President, we need a believable fiscal sanity plan.
We have reached a point where the unaffiliated voter block is larger than that of either Party. This block will determine the 2026 election outcome— I call it the “lame duck election”. History says the Democrats will do well; it’s a cyclical thing. It will take a charming, not just belligerent, President to outflank history.
Congress could theoretically count again. Indeed, Congress is the most disappointing story of the last nine months. In my view, if several Members of Congress on the Republican side would say “no” to the President, he would have a better chance of prevailing in 2026. Political expression in the United States was never intended to be either Yes or No. America is complicated. Leadership talents have to persuade, not dictate. The art of the deal in politics is not all leverage.
The win in the Middle East can embolden. The President, receiving compliments from the other side, can choose to be magnanimous. Unfortunately, he won’t.
He can be expansive and turn a number of independent voters. He can relish new support in the polls and become as influential in the US as he has been in the Middle East. But, trying to stay arms’ length from the government shutdown is not a deft move.
Finally, Mr. President, it is hard to win a Nobel Peace Prize if you are at war at home.
Al Sikes is the former Chair of the Federal Communications Commission under George H.W. Bush. Al writes on themes from his book, Culture Leads Leaders Follow published by Koehler Books.
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